Logistics can be a tricky world to navigate. While seasonal surges and predictable calendar events significantly influence both capacity and demand, the most disruptive periods are increasingly coming from beyond the calendar: geopolitical tensions, conflict, port closures, and labour strikes, all of which cause disruption to supply chains.
Regardless of the cause of these unexpected logistics peaks, the challenge becomes adapting the supply chain and building in the resilience and agility needed to keep goods moving. Below we outline what to watch out for and what you can do to help build a more resilient supply chain.
Seasonal peaks create predictable pressure points across global logistics, with events like Chinese New Year, Ramadan, Summer shutdown, and the Q4 peak season triggering production slowdowns, factory closures and reduced working hours. However, in today’s landscape, the biggest challenges come from beyond the calendar, such as:
- geopolitical tensions
- conflict
- port closures
- labour strikes
- severe congestion
- extreme weather and natural disasters
- sudden regulatory changes
Recent years have shown how quickly global supply chains can be thrown off course. From the current conflict in the Middle East to the Ukraine war, attacks on commercial vessels to tariff changes, global networks can be quickly disrupted, forcing shippers to reroute, switch to an alternative mode of transport, or accelerate shipments at short notice.
Whether the disruption is marked on a calendar or arrives overnight, the pattern is similar: reduced capacity, rising rates and longer transit times. Understanding the causes can help businesses plan ahead, while building resilience for the unexpected ensures you can adapt quickly and effectively.
How to build resilience into your supply chain
Building a resilient supply chain isn’t about avoiding disruption, but being prepared for it. While many disruptive events are hard to predict, you can still put plans and processes in place so that when these peaks happen: you’re prepared.
Collaboration is key
Clear communication with your suppliers is one of the most effective ways to stay ahead of disruption. Keep an eye on your forecasts and stock levels, determining a minimum level, and when you might need to consider air over sea or intermodal.
Build in more time
Particularly when it comes to seasonal peaks, planning starts earlier than many expect. Sea freight bookings often need to be secured as early as June or July to guarantee September arrivals. For Air Freight, you have more flexibility, with rates typically remaining steady until October, after which rates begin to climb and spot rates may only last for 24 hours or less.
By having conversations with your suppliers and logistics partners earlier, you can help secure more favourable rates, keeping costs down and allowing you more time to react to the unexpected.
Diversify your transport modes
Relying on a single mode of transport can put you at higher risk when it comes to keeping your goods moving. By diversifying your channels, you can stop your supply chain grinding to a halt when one route gets closed.
Many businesses adopt a hybrid strategy. Using air freight for time-critical or high-value shipments, while utilising sea freight for bulk or long-term shipments. This balanced approach maintains continuity, helps protect stock levels, and can reduce cost pressures.
Review warehousing and consolidation options
For businesses operating on a buy-on-demand model, it’s worth considering buy and store options. If you’re able to consolidate your shipments, for instance moving one full container as opposed to multiple smaller consignments, you can drastically reduce your shipping costs and give yourself greater control over scheduling. This consolidation also has the added bonus of helping you meet sustainability targets, with fewer trips resulting in lower carbon emissions.
For those storing goods overseas, you can also consider near-shoring part of your stock. Though the costs may be higher in the short-term, in the long-term you can prevent delays by having stock at the ready during periods of upheaval.
Have approved back-up plans at the ready
Last, but by no means least, have approved contingency plans ready to go when the unexpected occurs. When worldwide disruptions occur and capacity tightens, multiple businesses compete for limited space – particularly when it comes to air freight and time-critical shipments.
By creating a contingency plan and building an air freight budget into your forecasting, you can ensure that when plans go awry, you’re not stuck scrambling for last‑minute solutions. Instead, you can move straight into action, keeping your supply chain running and your goods moving reliably. Often, costs associated with missed deadlines or stock outages, can accrue to more than what would be spent on air freight. Careful evaluation and proactiveness is they key to finding the right balance.
Air freight can provide you with agility
Air freight provides businesses with the agility to react quickly when demand spikes or supply chains tighten. Where sea freight lead times are too long or unexpected peaks occur, air freight offers an opportunity to ensure goods meet their destination on time.
Many businesses still view air freight as an emergency solution, but in today’s volatile landscape, relying on air freight solely in emergencies can mean higher costs and reduced availability.
By building air freight into your planning from the start, you can:
- secure capacity before demand spikes
- protect your supply chain from volatility
- maintain predictable costs during unpredictable peaks
Dedicating more time to exploring air freight solutions also allows you to meet sustainability goals. Though air freight is responsible for far more carbon emissions than alternative modes of transport, starting these conversations earlier gives you the opportunity to explore more sustainable air freight solutions. For instance, transporting your goods via airlines using Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), or using a book-and-claim system to purchase carbon reduction certificates.
Helping your business fly
At Baxter Freight, we are your Solutions Architects. Our experienced Aviate team works closely with airlines and partners worldwide to secure capacity, optimise routes, and manage costs effectively, and sustainably.
Through accurate Scope 3 emissions reporting, expert guidance on lower‑carbon transport strategies, and verified carbon reduction via our Book & Claim system, our Sustainable Freight Network gives you a credible, measurable way to decarbonise your air freight and make meaningful progress toward carbon‑smart logistics.
Get in touch with one of our experts today and explore how we can help you build resilience into your supply chain.
