With Q4 fast approaching, businesses are already entering one of the most demanding periods of the logistics calendar.
Over the past year, supply chains have faced pressure from geopolitical instability, rising transportation costs, and longer transit times. With many sea freight services experiencing extended journeys due to vessels avoiding the Red Sea and Suez Canal, peak season pressures have begun even earlier than usual.
While air freight remains relatively stable for now, conditions are expected to tighten as we move into October. The combination of Golden Week, increased consumer demand in key global markets, and ongoing operational challenges across the sector is expected to place additional pressure on available capacity.
Businesses that delay booking shipments may find themselves facing reduced availability, higher costs, and limited flexibility. For companies with critical stock still to move, now is the time to secure capacity before demand spikes.
What is the impact of Golden Week?
Golden Week runs from 1 to 7 October 2026, but its impact on supply chains often extends beyond these dates.
Many factories, suppliers, and logistics providers reduce operations or close temporarily before and after the holiday, resulting in a significant impact on both air and sea freight movements. In the weeks leading up to the holiday, manufacturers rush to complete orders before production stops, while businesses around the world compete for available transport capacity to ensure their goods are moved before the shutdown begins.
This year’s impact is expected to be particularly significant as China’s Mid-Autumn festival falls immediately before Golden Week. As a result, many factories are expected to combine the two holiday periods, potentially leading to extended factory shutdowns and even tighter production schedules.
For air freight, Golden Week traditionally marks the start of peak season, with demand increasing as retailers look to ensure they have stock at the ready ahead of Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Christmas.
How might events in the Middle East impact this year’s peak season?
Peak season always places additional pressure on global air freight networks, but recent events may make this year’s capacity even tighter than usual.
As we approach Q4, Chinese carriers typically redeploy their aircrafts onto trans-Pacific routes to meet the demands of Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Christmas. This typically reduces the amount of available capacity on Asia-Europe trade lanes during the peak season period.
In a normal year, Middle Eastern airlines help absorb the resulting capacity gap, ensuring freight keeps moving between Asia and Europe. This year, however, their capacity to do so may be limited. Ongoing regional instability, elevated fuel costs, and the fact that some carriers are still not operating at full pre-disruption capacity could constrain the amount of additional space available to the market.
While capacity remains available today, the market’s ability to absorb additional demand appears weaker than in previous peak seasons. If trans-Pacific demand pulls aircraft away from Asia-Europe routes and Middle Eastern carriers are unable to backfill that capacity at historical levels, space could tighten quickly once peak volumes begin to build.
For organisations relying on air freight to maintain inventory levels or meet customer demand, waiting until peak season is fully underway could prove costly.
The effect of Peak beyond the retail industry
While retailers account for much of the additional demand during peak season, the impact extends far beyond e-commerce.
Automotive, healthcare, manufacturing, industrial and construction businesses all depend on the same global air freight networks throughout the year. Automotive companies often maintain lower stock levels, making them particularly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions; healthcare providers rely on consistent shipments to maintain stock availability and support patient demand, and construction firms frequently face year-end project deadlines that leave little room for delays.
The challenge is that airlines allocate capacity based on commercial demand rather than industry sector. As retailers increase volumes ahead of Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the festive period, all businesses find themselves competing for the same limited space.
This increased competition can make it more difficult to secure capacity, leading to higher freight rates and longer transit times for industries that have no direct connection to peak retail activity. The continued growth of e-commerce has further increased demand for air cargo capacity in recent years, making seasonal peaks more pronounced and placing additional pressure on an already constrained market.
As a result, peak season is no longer solely a retail concern. Businesses across every sector need to account for capacity constraints and rising demand in their logistics planning to avoid unnecessary disruption during the busiest period of the year.
Our top three tips to help you keep goods moving
Despite the challenges, there’s still time to ensure your supply chain keeps moving this Peak season.
1. Secure capacity as early as possible
Early planning can make a significant difference. As soon as production schedules and stock ready dates are confirmed, speak to your logistics provider about securing space.
This is particularly important ahead of Golden Week, when factory shutdowns and increased demand can quickly tighten available capacity. Businesses that leave bookings until the last minute may face fewer routing options, reduced flexibility, and potentially higher rates as carriers respond to market demand.
2. Consider Consolidating your shipments
Where possible, consider consolidating your shipments. This can help reduce transportation costs, while also simplifying planning and making it easier to secure capacity during busy periods.
Reviewing purchase orders and shipment schedules in advance may reveal opportunities to group freight together, helping to improve efficiency and reduce the number of individual bookings required during the peak season rush.
Consolidation can provide a competitive advantage when capacity is tight, meaning fewer bookings, better planning and order management, and potentially improved buying power.
3. Collaboration Is Key
Peak season success is determined by effective communication.
Keeping suppliers, freight partners and internal teams aligned helps identify potential challenges before they become problems. Sharing production schedules, purchase order forecasts and anticipated demand gives logistics providers more time to secure suitable solutions and build contingency plans where needed.
The earlier conversations take place, the greater the likelihood of securing the right service at the right time.
Keeping your supply chain moving this Peak Season
During this season, every movement counts. With rising demands and capacity tightening across global transport networks, business and logistics solutions need to offer both speed and reliability.
At Baxter Freight, we are your Solutions Architects. Aviate, our air freight solution, provides businesses with the agility to react quickly when demand spikes or supply chains tighten. Where sea freight lead times are too long or inventory levels peak unexpectedly, air freight offers an opportunity to ensure products or goods meet their destination on time. Our experienced team works closely with airlines and partners worldwide to get capacity, optimise routes and manage costs effectively, even during the busiest part of the year.
Get in touch with one of our experts today and explore how we can help you stay ahead of the busy periods.
